My friend Jim Huntington has written a book that got an Eppy (independent book publishers) award called Work’s New Age, in which he discusses how the job scene has changed permanently and has some notions about how to work and look for work within this new paradigm. While I haven’t always agreed with him, he is certainly thought-provoking. He also maintains a blog and he’s just posted a new entry about specific careers people might want to look into, based on their resistance to being out-sourced or automated into non-existence. The post is at : http://worksnewage.blogspot.com/2012/10/what-career-fields-best-resist.html but here it is in full:
What Career Fields Best Resist Automation and Globalization?
In Work’s New Age, the largest reasons for jobs to be lost are automation and globalizaton. Automation generally comes down to two questions – how resistant a job is to robotics, and how resistant it is to computer algorithms and connectivity. Globalization is a factor when a job does not need to be done locally.
Which career fields, in general, are most locally bound? This table presents the average ratings within each of the 25 U.S. Department of Labor occupation groups, weighting each job equally, using ratings of 1 for low local boundness, 2 for medium, and 3 for high, in order from most to least locally bound:
| Occupation Group | 1 to 3 Scale | Average Result |
| Building and Grounds Cleaning | 3.00 | Very Locally Bound |
| Construction and Extraction | 3.00 | Very Locally Bound |
| Food Preparation and Serving | 3.00 | Very Locally Bound |
| Personal Care and Service | 2.88 | Very Locally Bound |
| Farming, Fishing, and Forestry | 2.86 | Very Locally Bound |
| Installation, Maintenance, and Repair | 2.78 | Very Locally Bound |
| Community and Social Service | 2.70 | Very Locally Bound |
| Healthcare | 2.69 | Very Locally Bound |
| Protective Service | 2.57 | Very Locally Bound |
| Transportation and Material Moving | 2.31 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Education, Training, and Library | 2.29 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Entertainment and Sports | 2.25 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Management | 2.07 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Sales | 2.06 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Production | 1.90 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Office and Administrative Support | 1.89 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Legal | 1.67 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Life, Physical, and Social Science | 1.65 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Media and Communications | 1.60 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
| Architecture and Engineering | 1.30 | Not Locally Bound |
| Arts and Design | 1.30 | Not Locally Bound |
| Business and Financial | 1.28 | Not Locally Bound |
| Math | 1.00 | Not Locally Bound |
| Computer and Information Technology | 1.00 | Not Locally Bound |
| Military | 1.00 | Not Locally Bound |
| Overall Average | 2.18 | Somewhat Locally Bound |
How about resistance to robotic technology? When we use the same 1-2-3 system, also averaged among each job within each occupational group, we get this comparison:
| Occupation Group | 1 to 3 Scale | Average Result |
| Business and Financial | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Community and Social Service | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Computer and Information Technology | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Education, Training, and Library | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Entertainment and Sports | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Legal | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Life, Physical, and Social Science | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Management | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Math | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Architecture and Engineering | 2.93 | Very Resistant to Robotics |
| Healthcare | 2.81 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Arts and Design | 2.80 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Farming, Fishing, and Forestry | 2.71 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Personal Care and Service | 2.68 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Media and Communications | 2.60 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Sales | 2.59 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Food Preparation and Serving | 2.50 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Protective Service | 2.50 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Installation, Maintenance, and Repair | 2.49 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
| Building and Grounds Cleaning | 2.17 | Somewhat Resistant to Robotics |
| Office and Administrative Support | 2.11 | Somewhat Resistant to Robotics |
| Transportation and Material Moving | 2.03 | Somewhat Resistant to Robotics |
| Military | 2.00 | Somewhat Resistant to Robotics |
| Construction and Extraction | 1.80 | Somewhat Resistant to Robotics |
| Production | 1.19 | Not Resistant to Robotics |
| Overall Average | 2.45 | Generally Resistant to Robotics |
The third table shows susceptibility of a job to being automated through computing algorithms and computing connectivity. Applying the same 1-2-3 scale job-by-job produces the following:
| Occupation Group | 1 to 3 Scale | Average Result |
| Building and Grounds Cleaning | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Farming, Fishing, and Forestry | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Food Preparation and Serving | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Installation, Maintenance, and Repair | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Military | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Personal Care and Service | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Protective Service | 3.00 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Construction and Extraction | 2.98 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Management | 2.93 | Very Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Life, Physical, and Social Science | 2.74 | Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Community and Social Service | 2.70 | Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Transportation and Material Moving | 2.69 | Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Healthcare | 2.69 | Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Production | 2.68 | Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Math | 2.60 | Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Entertainment and Sports | 2.50 | Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Education, Training, and Library | 2.35 | Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Sales | 2.35 | Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Media and Communications | 2.30 | Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Arts and Design | 2.20 | Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Architecture and Engineering | 2.07 | Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Legal | 1.83 | Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Business and Financial | 1.80 | Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Office and Administrative Support | 1.74 | Somewhat Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Computer and Information Technology | 1.38 | Not Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
| Overall Average | 2.58 | Generally Resistant to Computing Algorithms and Connectivity |
As you can see, to paraphrase Bob Dylan, some of the careers that have been first will later be last. You will see a number of rather modest occupations close to the top, and some with excellent reputations and even consensus high future expectations near the bottom.
